IQ, Regeti, D-wave, Nvidia Quantumm, SuperQ quantum computing.

IonQ (IONQ) Rigetti Computing (RGTI) D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) Zapata AI (ZPTA) Honeywell (HON)

https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/10-best-dividend-stocks

• Peak-to-trough decline: ~56.8% (Oct 2007–Nov 2008)
• Year-end 2008 close: 903.25 (-38.49% annual decline)
• Key drivers:
  1. Housing market collapse
  2. Banking system failures
  3. Global liquidity crisis

• As of April 2, 2025: 5,670.97
• Year-to-date performance: -5%
• Decline from February 2025 peak (~6,100): ~7%

• Goldman Sachs:
  1. 5% drop in next 3 months (to ~5,300)
  2. 25% drawdown to 4,600 if recession occurs (-21% from current levels)
• BCA Research:
  1. Worst-case 1973–1974-style crash (~40% decline)
• Reuters Poll:
  1. Median 2025 year-end target: 6,500 (+9% from current)
  2. Notes “Trump-related uncertainties”

• Tariffs: 10–34% import tariffs could:
  1. Raise inflation by 0.7%
  2. Slow GDP growth to 1.5%
• Recession Probability: 35% chance within 12 months (Goldman Sachs)
• Valuations: 22x forward earnings (vs. 10-year avg. 18x)

• 2008 vs. 2025:
  1. 2008: Systemic financial risks
  2. 2025: Policy-driven risks (tariffs/stagflation)
  3. Projected declines milder than 2008 (25% vs. 56.8%)
• 1973–1974 Analogy:
  1. Stagflation could trigger multi-year decline (not base case)

• Tariff Escalation: Risk of retaliatory measures
• Inflation Data: Fed rate hike resumption if persistent
• Labor Market: Weakening jobs = recession signal
• Corporate Earnings: 2025 growth forecast: 11.1% (vs. 11.7% in 2024)

• Near-term downside: 5–25% (S&P 500: 4,600–5,300)
• 2008-style crash (~50%) unlikely
• Recovery drivers:
  1. Policy shifts (e.g., tax cuts)
  2. AI-driven productivity gains
• Monitor: Tariff negotiations, inflation trends, labor data

• Current S&P 500 (2024): ~5,200–5,500
• Historical Avg. Annual Return: ~7–10% (adjusted for inflation)
• Key Macro Variables:
  1. Fed interest rates (currently 5.25–5.50%)
  2. Inflation trajectory (target: 2%)
  3. Geopolitical risks (e.g., U.S.-China tariffs, elections)
  4. AI/tech adoption vs. regulatory pressures

• Drivers:
  1. Accelerated AI productivity gains
  2. Soft landing + Fed rate cuts (to 3–4% by 2026)
  3. Corporate earnings growth >8% annually
  4. Green energy/tech stimulus
• S&P 500 Projections:
  1. 2026: 6,800–7,200 (20–25% CAGR)
  2. 2028: 8,500–9,000 (AI “supercycle”)
  3. 2031: 11,000–12,000 (10–12% annualized return)

• Drivers:
  1. Sticky inflation (3–4%)
  2. Mild recessions in 2025 and 2029
  3. Earnings growth: 5–6% annually
  4. Tariff wars limit global trade (1–2% GDP drag)
• S&P 500 Projections:
  1. 2026: 6,000–6,400
  2. 2028: 7,200–7,800
  3. 2031: 8,500–9,200 (6–7% annualized return)

• Drivers:
  1. Inflation resurgence (5%+) forces Fed rates >6%
  2. Global recession in 2025–2026 (GDP -2–3%)
  3. Tariff escalation (e.g., 25% on all Chinese goods)
  4. Corporate earnings decline (-10% in 2025)
• S&P 500 Projections:
  1. 2026: 3,800–4,200 (25–30% crash)
  2. 2028: 4,500–5,000 (slow recovery)
  3. 2031: 5,500–6,000 (flat vs. 2024 levels)

• Downside Catalysts:
  1. U.S.-China military conflict (Taiwan escalation)
  2. Climate crisis disruptions (e.g., grid failures)
  3. Debt crisis (U.S. debt-to-GDP >150%)
  4. S&P 500 could drop to 2,500–3,000 (-50–60%)
• Upside Catalysts:
  1. Fusion energy breakthrough
  2. AI curing major diseases (biotech boom)
  3. S&P 500 could surge to 15,000+ by 2031

• P/E Ratio:
  1. Current: ~22x forward earnings
  2. Historical mean: ~16x
  3. Bubble threshold: >25x
• Buffett Indicator (Market Cap/GDP):
  1. Current: ~190% (vs. 142% 30-year avg)
  2. Critical zone: >200% = overvalued
• Margin Debt:
  1. Current: $700B (near all-time highs)
  2. Risk: Forced selling if debt unwinds

• Diversify: Energy/defense stocks for stagflation, tech for growth.
• Watch Triggers:
  1. 2024/2028 U.S. elections (tax/regulatory shifts)
  2. Fed “pause” signals (rate cuts = bullish)
  3. China property market collapse
• Long-Term Avg. Return Expectation: 4–7% real returns (vs. 10% pre-2008)